{"id":87295,"date":"2024-09-09T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-09T07:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/council.science\/?post_type=publications&#038;p=87295"},"modified":"2024-09-19T15:57:40","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T15:57:40","slug":"foresight-working-paper","status":"publish","type":"publications","link":"https:\/\/council.science\/publications\/foresight-working-paper\/","title":{"rendered":"A guide to anticipation: Tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Foresight is gaining international recognition as a critical set of tools for supporting proactive sustainable development. As the world grapples with rapid and unprecedented changes, particularly concerning the environment and technology, there is a renewed focus on future-oriented thinking to identify drivers of change, to navigate uncertainty, and to better inform today&#8217;s decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The International Science Council, in partnership with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)<\/a>, has conducted a comprehensive review of existing tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight, and has convened a reflection on the evolution of foresight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p role=\"heading\" aria-level=\"3\">&#8220;As our world becomes more unpredictable and interconnected, relying solely on short-term thinking is simply not enough.This Working Paper presents the tools to navigate uncertainty, helping us anticipate the unexpected and shape a future that works for everyone. Foresight, combined with conventional methods to synthesize evidence in the form of findings of scientific research, can assist significantly with the brokerage function of science advice based on informed dialogues between science and policy. Using foresight tools and methods isn\u2019t just an option \u2013 it\u2019s an essential part of responsible decision-making.&#8221;<\/p>\n<cite>Salvatore Aric\u00f2, CEO of the International Science Council<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:20%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"630\" height=\"886\" src=\"https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-90353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2.png 630w, https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2-213x300.png 213w, https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2-71x100.png 71w, https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2-142x200.png 142w, https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2-600x844.png 600w, https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2-257x362.png 257w, https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image-2-385x542.png 385w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:80%\">\n<p><strong><strong>A guide to anticipation: Working paper on tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">International Science Council. 2024. \u2018A guide to anticipation: Working Paper on Tools and Methods of Horizon Scanning and Foresight\u2019. Paris, France. International Science Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/council.science\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/A-guide-to-anticipation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"btn btn--tertiary\">Download paper<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<div style=\"height:15px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p role=\"heading\" aria-level=\"3\">\u201cOur collaboration with the ISC has underscored that decision-making can\u2019t rely on today\u2019s knowledge alone. This Working Paper shows that foresight isn&#8217;t just about predicting what&#8217;s next; it&#8217;s about empowering us to shape what&#8217;s possible \u2013 it highlights how foresight can equip organisations to navigate uncertainty and make smarter, forward-looking decisions that benefit everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n<cite>Andrea Hinwood, Chief Scientist of the United Nations Environment Programme<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Following a literature review, the report deliberately opens discussions up through a set of essays on key areas that remain frontiers in mainstream foresight, namely:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The wealth of indigenous and local community approaches to foresight and futures thinking so often underrepresented in academic literature and in the practice of international organizations;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The integration of complexity and uncertainty in scenario planning;&nbsp;and&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The role of foresight in decision-making with important considerations on the actionability of foresight studies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This report is a contribution to UNEP\u2019s &#8220;Foresight Trajectory&#8221; that is seeking to expand the organization\u2019s capacity to identify emerging issues and potential disruptions early on and embed foresight in its work to build a culture of anticipation. In July 2024, UNEP and the ISC published &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/council.science\/publications\/navigating-new-horizons-global-foresight-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Navigating New Horizons: A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Well-Being<\/a>.&#8221; This global report highlights critical shifts and signals of change expected to impact planetary health and well-being by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Recommended citation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>International Science Council. 2024. \u2018A guide to anticipation: Working paper on tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight\u2019. DOI: 10.24948\/2024.10. Paris, France. International Science Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Artwork by Arbu, co-piloted by Dall-E AI.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The International Science Council, in partnership with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has conducted a comprehensive review of existing tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight, and has convened a reflection on the evolution of foresight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":90350,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"tags":[543,25],"publication-committee":[],"region":[],"publication-type":[469],"tag":[],"class_list":["post-87295","publications","type-publications","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-science-policy","tag-united-nations","publication-type-discussion-paper"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - 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